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The immediate reaction regarded what the historical day meant for next month. If the final Saturday of February was frantic, the Madness of March could only be enthralling.
Seven top-10 teams lost on Saturday, including the top six, for the first time in history. Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Purdue, Kansas and Kentucky, one through six in respective order, all went down in the span of 12 hours. So did ninth-ranked Texas Tech.
We hadn’t seen anything quite like it. Social media was ablaze as one upset followed another. The consensus was that next month’s NCAA Tournament could be magical, that anything can happen.
That is true, to a point. But look closer. While there were unexpected results, they weren’t stunners outside of Arizona’s 16-point setback at Colorado.
Of the seven losses, four were to other ranked opponents, and that didn’t include Purdue’s setback to NCAA Tournament lock Michigan State. All were on the road.
The depth of this season may lead to less early-round upsets. Limited drama early. But it could create chaos later on with so many teams — I’d put the number at 20 or so — capable of winning three to four games in the tournament.
The story of the season has been the lack of a true favorite. There isn’t one team that would be a surprise to not reach the Final Four in New Orleans. This isn’t Baylor and Gonzaga on a collision course to meet in the title game a year ago. But the premier teams in the country aren’t just losing to anyone.
Gonzaga’s setbacks have come against Duke, Alabama and St. Mary’s, which is ranked 23rd in the nation and has 24 wins. Auburn has lost to Connecticut, Arkansas, Florida and Tennessee. Aside from an early-season upset loss to Dayton, Kansas has fallen to Texas Tech, Kentucky, Texas and Baylor. Prior to Arizona’s stunning defeat at Colorado on Saturday, the Wildcats had only lost to UCLA and Tennessee.
These are all teams capable of going far in March. Programs that for the most part are unlikely to be eliminated early. This year’s NCAA Tournament is wide open, to an extent. Saturday offered a proper illustration: The best teams could be in danger, but only against the tier of teams immediately below them given the depth that exists.
Willard to win
As March arrives, there is only one local NCAA Tournament lock: Seton Hall. It feels like it has been this way for years, Kevin Willard’s Pirates carrying the flag into the Madness. After a one-year hiatus — Rutgers took the mantle last March — Seton Hall basically punched its ticket with a 16-point win at skidding Xavier, giving itself a shot to improve its seeding with a strong finish.
Seton Hall is going to be dancing for the fifth time in the last six tournaments, and it is happening despite the absence of top guard Bryce Aiken (concussion) over the last six weeks. This has been typical Willard. His team isn’t always easy on the eyes. It hits a January speed bump. But when it matters the most, the Pirates find a way. They may even wind up with a first-round bye in the Big East Tournament with a 2-0 week against Georgetown and Creighton. Memo to Seton Hall fans: Appreciate Willard and his many on-the-fly adjustments.
On Friar
Good for Providence. Good for Ed Cooley. Good for Nate Watson. This is what makes college basketball great. A star player who stays around despite struggles. A coach rewarded for years of strong work with a season straight out of a movie script. A loyal fan base that rises to the occasion. Providence won its first ever Big East regular-season crown on Saturday night at the Dunkin’ Donuts center, an unlikely title for a team that was picked to finish seventh in the Big East by the league’s coaches. I don’t think Providence is a Final Four team. The Friars have received some good fortune along the way, facing a few undermanned teams and not having to play three of their toughest games — at Seton Hall and Creighton, home for UConn — because of COVID-19 cancellations. But they took advantage. They made their own breaks. No matter what happens from here on now, Providence has a championship.
Game of the Week
North Carolina at No. 7 Duke, Saturday 6 p.m.
This will be an event — the final home game of Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski legendary 42-year career in Durham. Fittingly, it comes against longtime nemesis North Carolina. Already, fans are camping outside for tickets. A who’s who of legendary Dukies are expected to be in attendance to give the five-time national champion a proper sendoff. It will be an emotional evening at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Seeding
1: Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, Arizona
2: Auburn, Kentucky, Duke, Purdue
3: Villanova, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Wisconsin
4: Illinois, UCLA, Providence, Arkansas
Stock Watch
Jared Grasso — Up
The year before his arrival, Bryant won three games. It didn’t even qualify for the NEC Tournament. Now, in Grasso’s fourth season, the Bulldogs are the top seed in the low-major tournament with a shot to reach their first NCAA Tournament. Under the 41-year-old Grasso’s lead, Bryant is one victory shy of its first 20-win campaign in 15 years. A candidate during last year’s coaching carousel at Fordham and Hofstra, Grasso could be a target again this offseason after the rebuilding job he’s done at Bryant.
Baylor — Up
It was around this time last year that Baylor began its ascent, shaking off a brief slump to find its game entering the NCAA Tournament. Well, it’s happening again. After their 10-point win over No. 5 Kansas on Saturday, the Bears have won five of their last six games, and four of them have come by double figures despite the absence of second-leading scorer LJ Cryer due to a foot injury. A No. 1 seed is back in play for Scott Drew and Co. with a strong showing in the Big 12 Tournament.
Creighton — Down
This isn’t about Saturday’s loss at Providence, or really anything the Bluejays have done wrong. The season-ending injury to freshman point guard Ryan Nembhard (broken wrist) is brutal news for a team that has significantly surpassed expectations and was headed for the NCAA Tournament. A first-round bye in the Big East Tournament is now in danger if Creighton can’t find a way to win one of its final two games, at home against Connecticut and Seton Hall. It just isn’t the same team without the playmaking Nembhard, the leading candidate to be the Big East’s Freshman of the Year.
Purdue — Down
This is still a second weekend team. But that alone isn’t good enough. There were Final Four expectations in West Lafayette. And this group is showing serious signs that may not be in the cards. It lost to slumping Michigan State on Saturday. It recently was obliterated by on-the-bubble Michigan. And it struggled to beat Northwestern and Maryland. The fourth-ranked Boilermakers are trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time.
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