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No. 2 seed Kentucky became the fifth-biggest favorite (-17.5 points) to lose in the NCAA Tournament since 1978, falling to Saint Peter’s on Thursday night.
The Peacocks were around +1400 (14/1) on the moneyline ($10 pays $140), with Kentucky laying -4,000 ($400 pays $10).
Using our data from Bet Labs and other historical sources, here are the biggest NCAA Tournament upsets measured by the point spread since 1978 (the first year we have full data).
1. No. 15 Norfolk State over No. 2 Missouri
Year: 2012. Spread: +21.
Duke – Lehigh gets remembered, but this game, played on the same day, tops our list.
Missouri went 30-5 that season and had just dominated the Big 12 Tournament, winning all three games by double digits en route to the title.
Kyle O’Quinn was huge down the stretch for Norfolk State, which outlasted the Tigers, 86-84. The Spartans lost by 34 points to Florida in the second round.
2. No. 16 UMBC vs. No. 1 Virginia
Year: 2018. Spread: +20.5.
Perhaps the most memorable game on this list, UMBC shocked the top-seeded Cavaliers to become the first No. 16 seed to ever win in the NCAA Tournament.
The crazy part is that it was never really close once the second half began. The game was tied 21-21 at halftime, and UMBC won by 20 points behind a 12-24 shooting performance from 3-point range. UVA shot just 4 of 22 from distance.
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The Retrievers lost to Kansas State in the second round, and Virginia bounced back to win the national title the following season.
3t. No. 15 Coppin State vs. No. 2 South Carolina
Year: 1997. Spread: +18.5.
Coppin State had never won an NCAA Tournament game before beating South Carolina by 13 points in 1997.
Amazingly, Coppin State shot just 2 of 13 from 3-point range but got to the foul line 34 times and converted 26 of them.
3t. No. 15 Santa Clara vs. No. 2 Arizona
Year: 1993. Spread: +18.5.
Arizona was in its heyday when it met Santa Clara in the 1993 NCAA Tournament first round. The Wildcats had reached the Sweet 16 in three of the previous five seasons and went to the Final Four the following year.
But in 1993, as an 18.5-point favorite, Santa Clara did the impossible. It stood as the biggest NCAA Tournament upset (tied with Coppin State in 1997) until 2012, when Norfolk State beat Missouri.
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5t. No. 15 Saint Peter’s over No. 2 Kentucky
Year: 2022. Spread: +17.5.
Kentucky was among the most popular national title choices in 2022 but fell to the MAAC champion in the first round in overtime.
5t. No. 15 Hampton over No. 2 Iowa State
Year: 2001. Spread: +17.5.
This game was memorable because it came down the absolute wire
Hampton scored with under seven seconds left to go up 58-57, then Iowa State’s Jamaal Tinsley had a game-winning layup roll off the rim as time expired.
Hampton lost to No. 10 seed Georgetown in the next round by 19 points.
7. No. 14 Arkansas-Little Rock vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
Year: 1986. Spread: +17.
You may not remember this one. I certainly don’t. The 3-point line didn’t even exist in the NCAA Tournament yet! (it came the following year).
Little Rock just could not miss in this 90-83 win, shooting 62.3 percent from the field and converting 24 of 32 free throws.
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