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The two betting favorites to win the Big East each suffered a midweek hiccup heading into their clash Saturday in Philadelphia. Connecticut lost at home to Creighton by four points Tuesday night and Villanova lost at Marquette by 10 points Wednesday.
This game is a must-win for both teams, who sit two games behind the conference leader, Providence, in the loss column. Villanova still gets two games with both UConn and Providence and could catch and pass them in the standings because of that, but the loser of this game is all but out of the conversation for the Big East regular-season title.
Villanova has had at least a share of that title in seven of the last eight seasons, but this version of the Wildcats has lacked the depth and physicality to consistently dominate in an improved league this season.
The Huskies have the length and size inside to challenge Villanova, but will they be able to defend the perimeter?
Villanova has one of the shortest benches in the entire country and it’s even shorter with Justin Moore’s status in doubt for this game. If the Huskies can get to the rim and foul line and put Villanova in some early foul trouble, it could spell serious trouble for the Wildcats.
Unless Villanova just gets red hot from 3-point range and stays hot, the physicality and length of the Huskies will keep them in this game and I think Connecticut has a real shot to pull off the upset. Similar to how Marquette and Baylor’s ball pressure and strong wing defenders gave Villanova fits, I think Connecticut can do the same.
It’s a good bounce-back spot for Villanova, but UConn will also be all-in and I think the matchup favors the visitors.
The play: Connecticut, +6 or better.
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