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Action Network’s NBA expert offers up three betting recommendations in the ultra-tight Eastern Conference.
Heat Under 54.5 Wins (-120, DraftKings)
The Heat are 43-22, which means Miami has 17 games left. In other words, the Heat would need to finish 12-5 or better to hit this Over. And honestly, I’m not sure they’ll need to.
Look, this isn’t even really a vote against Miami. The Heat are really good and finally healthy, and now word is that Victor Oladipo is healthy and back soon, too. The Heat have a relatively soft schedule and should win plenty of games. However, I’m just not sure they’ll have any real need to get to 55 wins.
Entering Sunday, the Heat were three games ahead of Philly, and Miami was already 3.5 games plus a tiebreaker ahead of the Bulls.
They might not need to go much better than .500 the rest of the way to coast to an easy 1-seed, and at that point, there’s no motivation to play this older roster instead of resting Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry for the playoffs after a grueling, injury-plagued season.
The Heat close their season against the Bulls, Raptors, Hornets, Hawks, and Magic. Four of those teams will badly want wins to improve their postseason chances, and the Magic could have already clinched their tank by then, too. I’m not fading Miami, just the Heat’s motivation to get to 55 wins. Give me the Under.
76ers Over 2.5 Seed (+145, DraftKings)
The Heat are almost certainly locked into one of the top two seeds, which means we only need one other Eastern team to finish ahead of Philadelphia to hit this Over. Maybe Milwaukee gets healthy and closes strong. Perhaps Boston’s surge up the standings continues. Maybe Chicago or Cleveland makes a big push for the division title.
Even if none of those things happen, we still don’t really know that Philadelphia will stay healthy and be great. Joel Embiid or James Harden could get hurt again, and the wins may not come as easy once the schedule stiffens up, and teams have a chance to game plan against their new look.
We don’t need any miracles here. We only really need a better than 40 percent chance that any one of those things bounces in our favor, and Philly ends up short of the 2-seed. Look, Embiid is around even odds to win the MVP, and if the Sixers finish as a top-2 seed, he is a very strong favorite to win that award. The fact that he’s not a heavier favorite is a good reminder of why there’s value here.
Celtics +370 to Win Atlantic Division (DraftKings)
I’ve been pumping up Boston for a few weeks now, and this looks like a great way to invest. The Celtics have the best defense in the NBA right now. They’ve moved Robert Williams out of the paint and unleashed him as a help defender, and that has also put Al Horford into a switching role where he’s at his best. Derrick White’s presence has been a huge addition on both ends too, especially in place of Dennis Schroder.
The Celtics are flying now. They had won 13 of their last 15 entering Sunday, with many of those wins in dominant fashion, and they also have a very winnable schedule the rest of the way. Just three of their next 13 games are against teams in the top four in either conference, and a difficult closing stretch on the road against the Bulls, Bucks, and Grizzlies could end up easier than it seems if one or two of those teams is already resting for the playoffs.
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