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The Toronto Raptors made easy work of the Minnesota Timberwolves when these teams met back in February with a 103-91 victory. Things could be a lot different on Wednesday, however, with both teams battling for playoff seeding and attempting to avoid the play-in tournament.
When they met back in February, the Timberwolves were on the tail end of a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. The Raptors were well-rested, and so it’s no surprise they held Minnesota to just 91 points on 0.93 points per possession. The Wolves shot just 39 percent from the field and 23.8 percent from 3, yet still held a lead entering the fourth quarter before melting down in the final 12 minutes.
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I think the Wolves are the better team and my model reflects that. I make this game a pick ’em, totally disagreeing with the market that has the Raptors pegged as 2.5-point favorites. Outside of the Boston Celtics, the Timberwolves are the hottest team in the league since the All-Star break, going 12-5 with Net Rating of 9.2 behind an Offensive Rating of 120.4 and the Defensive Rating of 111.1.
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Though the Raptors have been in solid form winning three straight against the Cavaliers, Pacers and a depleted Celtics team which rested its starters, this is a huge step up in competition.
Karl-Anthony Towns should feast on a Raptors defense that is 22nd in field-goal percentage at the rim (66.1) and I’m not sure the Raptors can keep up with this offense overall. They are just 27th in half-court points per 100 possessions (91.2) and are facing a Wolves defense that has the 10th-best Defensive Rating in the half court (93.6).
In addition, the Raptors tend to generate much of their offense in transition, ranking sixth in points per 100 possessions (3.5) on the break, but the Wolves aren’t far behind as they’re 10th at 2.4.
The plays: Timberwolves +2.5 and moneyline.
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