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Fantasy football busts come in all shapes and sizes. You have top picks who don’t pan out, rookies who never blossom and value plays who never get the opportunities you hoped they would see. Drafting a bust always hurts, but some hurt more than others.
Falcons running back Mike Davis was a major bust this season, and those who invested in him agonized over his lack of usage early in the season. In 2020, Davis seemed to be a competent replacement for Christian McCaffrey in Carolina. This season, he headed to Atlanta to be the Falcons’ workhorse. Unfortunately, he struggled in camp and quickly lost touches, and his job, to Cordarrelle Patterson. Apparently, a career backup behind a suspect offensive line does not a fantasy stud make, and learning from our mistakes is paramount in fantasy football. As we look ahead to 2022, we need to identify potential pitfalls like Davis — and the running back position has some.
Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny, whose fantasy-playoff heroics are sure to see him overdrafted next season, is a prime example. He has had three 100-yard efforts with five touchdowns over his past four games, and those who were lucky enough to grab him in free agency likely pushed through to their championship with relative ease. But should we believe in Penney for next season?
Penny spent his first 3 1/2 seasons injured. Of a possible 64 games since the start of the 2018 season, Penny appeared in just 36. No, we cannot predict injuries, but Penny’s career is a pretty sharp indicator of what to expect.
Another late-season hero destined to be overdrafted next season is Bills running back Devin Singletary. With four touchdowns and 235 rushing yards over his past three games, Singletary has delivered victory to a number of fantasy owners.
But before we declare 2022 as the Season of Singletary, let’s understand the volume he has received comes the Bills’ need to protect Josh Allen with the playoffs looming and from the cold weather. Nothing wears down an opponent like snow and sub-zero temperatures. Singletary’s volume has never been as high as it has been over the past three games, and next fall, it will be right back to the heavy passing scheme and Allen poaching goal-line carries.
Just because a player finishes the season strong, it doesn’t mean that will carry over to next season. Beware the hype and be careful of analysts cherry-picking statistics to push a player on you. Be smart, study the track record and understand who it is you are drafting. Avoid the pitfalls and the rest is cream cheese.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy football advice.
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