Value dictates which players to hold in keeper leagues

Fantasy keeper players are like long-term investments. There are some who might yield a big return in the future, but cost too much to buy into immediately. Others might be cheap but have low yield probability in the years ahead.

Then others fall perfectly within these categories — having both a healthy outlook and affordable cost. These are the players we are looking to keep.

Now, if you still play in a keeper league that has no value attached to individual players — either an auction value or a draft pick — then the approach is simple: Just keep your best players.

But if you have left the dark ages of fantasy behind and are playing a contemporary game, then those values are a driving force in keeper decisions.

Those costs will vary from league, but based on this past season’s redraft values, we can get a good estimate of likely keeper value in most leagues.

Najee Harris (RB, Steelers): This rookie had a big season, and his prowess in the passing game adds to his PPR value.

Worth a high cost considering the rarity of young, effective running backs, and how short those runs of good production often last.

Ja’Marr Chase (WR, Bengals): Was the WR5 in his rookie year, and also is on a team with young stars and a young QB, with whom he has a long-running connection back to LSU.

Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings): Breadth of uncertainty surrounding the Vikings — from potential coaching overhaul to Kirk Cousins viability at QB and contract that is up after next season — makes Jefferson less valuable than Chase long term.

Javonte Williams (RB, Broncos): Didn’t have a splashy rookie season, sharing the load with veteran Melvin Gordon. But Gordon is a pending free agent, and if Denver finally makes the kind of QB upgrade it has been attempting since Peyton Manning retired, Williams’ production could explode. Oh, and plus, the young RB thingie, too.

Others who have attractive keeper values include: Deebo Samuel, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle and Dalton Schultz.

Making the call to keep a player is important, but just as critical is knowing when to let one go.

Lamar Jackson (QB, Ravens): The nature of the way he plays exposes him to more potential injuries than many QBs.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Cowboys): Looked old this year, and RBs get old quick. So if he already runs old, it is not a good sign. Plus, younger Tony Pollard looks like the better runner.

Aaron Jones (RB, Packers): At 27, actually one year older than Zeke, Plus, younger A.J. Dillon looks like the better runner.

Diontae Johnson (WR, Steelers): This could change dramatically if the Steelers acquire Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson in the offseason, but at present, we’re not going to invest in a WR with a junk QB.

George Kittle (TE, 49ers): He is great when he plays, but he has missed 12 games in the past two seasons and has played a full season just once.

Big Weeks

Kirk Cousins QB, Vikings, vs. Bears (FanDuel $7,200/DraftKings $6,100)

We loath trusting Cousins, but in a no-pressure situation, at home in a dome, in an afternoon time slot, he could deliver one last strong game in a surprisingly solid season.

Samaje Perine RB, Bengals, at Browns (FD $6,500/DK $5,300)

With no Joe Burrow or Joe Mixon and possibly other stars, having locked up a playoff spot, look for Cincy to try to just get the game done without injury. Could even see some work by Captain America, Chris Evans.

Darrel Williams RB, Chiefs, at Broncos (FD $7,000/DK N/A)

Kansas City still has home-field hopes, so we expect more Williams and Derrick Gore. Showed last week what he is capable of filling in for Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Kenneth Gainwell RB, Eagles, vs. Cowboys (FD $4,800/DK $4,600)

Very likely no Boston Scott or Jordan Howard, and Miles Sanders previously was ruled out.

Small Weaks

Aaron Rodgers QB, Packers, at Lions (FD $8,200/DK $7,800)

A great example of why fantasy leagues should not extend to the final week. Even with Rodgers starting, would be shocking if he plays the whole game. Nothing to gain by risking injury. Puts fantasy managers in position in which they have to consider sitting a top QB.

Cordarrelle Patterson RB, Falcons, vs. Saints (FD $6,200/DK $6,400)

The air has gone out of his balloon. Has three straight single-digit games in PPR, and faces the second-toughest defense vs. opposing fantasy RBs.

Le’Veon Bell RB, Buccaneers, vs. Panthers (FD $5,200/DK $5,000)

Filling in for Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones was ineffective last week before tweaking his ankle. Le’Veon Bell got some use, but he is basically brand new still. Expect more Ke’Shawn Vaughn against a strong run defense.

Darren Waller TE, Raiders, vs. Chargers (FD $6,500/DK $6,100)

Listed as questionable, hoping to return from a knee issue after missing the past five games. But before that he was a disappointment this season. We don’t expect him to get a full workload, and we dislike injury returnees in general, even in such a good matchup.

Fantasy Insanity’s Daily Duel

Site: FanDuel

Slate: Sun. main (13 games)

Type: $10 tourney