[ad_1]
One of the first things that sticks out to me in the Kansas-Villanova matchup is the pace clash. Villanova sits in the bottom-15 nationally in Adjusted Tempo, while Kansas ranks 61st, per KenPom. If Villanova can slow this game to a halt from start to finish, it will have a very good chance of pulling off the small upset — even without Justin Moore.
Speaking of Moore, his loss is huge. I have him worth close to two points to the spread in a game I would’ve projected Kansas as a very small favorite with both teams at full strength. You could argue he’s worth more since Villanova doesn’t have an abundance of depth (323rd in bench minutes) and the sample size without him is fairly minuscule.
Nevertheless, losing a key player can work in a team’s favor in that first game playing shorthanded. Not only can it serve as a rallying point where everybody else steps up, it introduces uncertainty. I’m sure Jay Wright spent the week implementing some new looks that Kansas doesn’t have on film.
In general, Kansas wants to attack the rim, but Villanova’s defense ranks in the top 20 in both rate and efficiency at the rim. Kansas, however, could have a decided edge on the offensive glass, where it ranks in the top 40 in the country. Second-chance points could be its best path to points if this turns into a half-court battle.
Betting on March Madness 2022?
I think this spread is a bit too high for a very veteran Villanova squad that should control tempo and keep Kansas out of transition.
Keep in mind this Kansas team just closed as only a 5.5-point favorite against Miami in a much more favorable matchup and has had trouble building margin as a favorite throughout the season. I’m going to wait to see if I can get five or more, but will be on the side of Wright, who’s seeking his third national title since 2016.
The play: Villanova, +4.5.
[ad_2]