Last week, I started a two-part series showing how some starting pitchers fare against specific opponents in Major League Baseball. I showcased the best starting-pitcher trends for bookies in 2021. This week I will share the worst trends in recent years, as determined by the return on investment.
This week’s information is a bit more shocking as many of the top pitchers have been featured on this “worst” list. These pitches are often so overpowered that even if they pitch well, they can get lost, and speculators feel the pain. Betting against elite starters such as Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole could prove highly profitable. The best beters know when to pull the trigger at a clear price. Baseball betting nowadays is more than just starting pitches. Bullpens are of almost equal importance, and many games begin after being decided. Thus, overpayment is a common mistake for some beginners.
Take a closer look at the key figures posted by each pitcher. Some show terrible numbers, such as Nick Pivetta’s 10.34 ERA against Washington. Others think only bad luck results – the stats are good, but the won-lost record doesn’t match.
Kyle Hendrix (Cub)
Final Six vs White Sox
Team Record: 1-5, -10 units, ROI -166.7%
personal record: 1–4, 33 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 3.55, WHIP 1.212, K / 98.83
Team running support: 2.5 rpg
Schedule Spot: August 6-8 August 27-29
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
Marlin vs the last six
Team Record: 2-4, -9.65 units, ROI -160.8%
personal record: 1-4, 35 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 2.83, WHIP 1, K / 9 13.11
Team running support: 5.2 rpg
Schedule Spot: 5-8 July
Aaron Nola (Phillips)
The Last Five vs. the Marlins begin
Team Record: 1-4, -7.55 units, ROI -151.0%
personal record: 1-3, 34 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 2.38, WHIP 0.882, K / 9 10.06
Team running support: 3.4 rpg
Schedule Spot: May 18-20, May 24-27, June 29-July 1, July 16-18, September 3-5, October 1-3
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
Last Five Vs Giants Begins
Team Record: 2-3, -6.95 units, ROI -139.0%
personal record: 2-3, 28₃ / ings innings
Key Statistics: ERA 2.86, WHIP 1.2, K / 98.26
Team running support: 5 rpg
Schedule Spot: 21–23 May, 27–30 May, 28–29 June, 19–22 July, 27–29 July, September 3–5
Alex Wood (veteran)
Last five vs phili
Team Record: 1-4, -6.85 units, ROI-137.0%
personal record: 1-2, 28₃ / ings innings
Key Statistics: ERA 4.13, WHIP 1.518, K / 97.31
Team running support: 3.6 rpg
Schedule Spot: July 18-20
Kyle Hendrix (Cub)
The Final Five vs. the Red Begins
Team Record: 0-5, -6.75 units, ROI-135.0%
personal record: 0-3, 25 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 8.28, WHIP 1.76, K / 9 9
Team running support: 4.2 rpg
Schedule Spot: 28–30 May, 2–4 July, 26–29, August 16–18, September 6–8
Jose Berrios (Twins)
The Final Five Vs Athletics Begins
Team Record: 0-5, -6.15 units, ROI-123.0%
personal record: 0-3, 26¹ / 4 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 4.1, WHIP 1.405, K / 97.86
Team running support: 2.8 rpg
Schedule Spot: 14-16 May
Stefan Strasbourg (National)
The Final Five vs. The Giants Begins
Team Record: 1-4, -6.15 units, ROI-123.0%
personal record: 0-4, 22₃ / 4 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 5.24, WHIP 1.432, K / 9 11.68
Team running support: 3.8 rpg
Schedule Spot: 10–12 June, 9–11 July
Jae Happ (twin)
The Final Five Vs Blue Jas Begins
Team Record: 1-4, -6.1 units, ROI-122.0%
personal record: 1-3, 29 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 4.04, WHIP 0.931, K / 9 8.38
Team running support: 2.6 rpg
Schedule Spot: September 17-19, September 23-25
Gerrit Cole (Yankees)
The last five vs the rays begin
Team Record: 1-4, -6.05 units, ROI -121.0%
personal record: 1-2, 29₃ / ings innings
Key Statistics: ERA 3.68, WHIP 1.193, K / 9 13.5
Team running support: 3.4 rpg
Schedule Spot: May 12 (tonight), May 31-June 2, July 27-29, October 1-3
Jose Berrios (Twins)
Final five vs indian
Team Record: 0-5, -6 units, ROI -120.0%
personal record: 0-1, 27₃ / ings innings
Key Statistics: ERA 4.28, WHIP 1.39, K / 98.23
Team running support: 2.4 rpg
Schedule Spot: May 21–23, June 24–27, August 16, September 6–9, September 14–15.
Madison Bumgner (Diamondback)
Last five starts vs. Marlins
Team Record: 1-4, -5.95 units, ROI-119.0%
personal record: 1-2, 29₃ / ings innings
Key Statistics: ERA 4.6, WHIP 1.193, K / 97.36
Team running support: 4 rpg
Kenta Maida (Twins)
Last five starts vs angels
Team Record: 1-4, -5.9 units, ROI-118.0%
personal record: 1-3, 25₃ / ings innings
Key Statistics: ERA 4.62, WHIP 1.105, K / 9 11.01
Team running support: 3.8 rpg
Schedule Spot: 20 May, 22-25 July
Kyle Hendrix (Cub)
The Last 10 Vs Pirates Begins
Team Record: 2-8, -11.55 units, ROI-115.5%
personal record: 2-6, 58¹ / 4 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 2.93, WHIP 1.097, K / 95.4
Team running support: 3.4 rpg
Schedule Spot: 25–27 May, 2–4 September, 28–30 September
Andrew Heaney (Angels)
The Final Five Vs Athletics Begins
Team Record: 0-5, -5.7 units, ROI-114.0%
personal record: 0-2, 28² / 4 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 4.71, WHIP 1.012, K / 9 10.99
Team running support: 3.2 rpg
Schedule Spot: 21–23 May, 27–30 May, 14–16 June, 19–20 July, 29 – August. 1, September 17–19
Nick Pivetta (Red Sox)
Last Nine Vs National Begins
Team Record: 0-9, -10.2 units, ROI-113.3%
personal record: 4-7, 35₃ / ings innings
Key Statistics: ERA 10.34, WHIP 2.215, K / 9 8.07
Team running support: 3.1 rpg
Schedule Spot: October 1-3
Max Scheser (civilian)
The Last Five vs. The Brave Begins
Team Record: 1-4, -5.65 units, ROI-113.0%
personal record: 1-3, 27 1/3 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 5.6, WHIP 1.427, K / 9 12.18
Team running support: 3.8 rpg
Schedule Spot: July 31-June 3, August 6–8, August 13–15, September 7–9
Max Scheser (civilian)
The last five vs rocky
Team Record: 2-3, -5.65 units, ROI-113.0%
personal record: 1–1, 28 innings
Key Statistics: ERA 5.14, WHIP 1.321, K / 9 12.54
Team running support: 4.8 rpg
Schedule Spot: September 17–19, September 27–29
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