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The quarterback wheel of fortune will be spinning for as many as a dozen NFL teams once the season ends. When the game of musical quarterbacks ends, what awaits the needy teams in the NFL draft that won’t have a seat filled by Deshaun Watson, or perhaps Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers?
“If you bookend these guys with last year’s class and you look at Bryce Young for next year [2023] out of Alabama, Bryce Young would be in the Trevor Lawrence category,” ESPN’s inimitable Mel Kiper Jr. tells Serby Says. “This year, you got a lot of guys who are OK, but not great, and then last year we had the five phenomenal guys.”
Just the Lions’ luck … not a quarterback in sight to Tank For until the 2023 NFL Draft.
A lot can change (raise your hand if you projected Zach Wilson last December to emerge as the second pick of the 2021 NFL Draft), but for now, Kiper drops back, scans the field and lets loose on the single most difficult evaluation in the sport.
“In all of sports it’s the most important position,” Kiper says. “People said, ‘If your arm’s not strong, it’s not getting stronger.’ Well Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning all proved that wrong. Then they said … you can’t coach out accuracy issues. Well, Josh Allen proved that wrong. Where are we at right now? We’re still trying to figure this whole thing out. It’s hard. Then you get into, ‘OK what team does he go to? What offensive coordinator does he go to? What system does he go to? What’s the personnel around him like?’ ”
There will be quarterback intrigue involving the Giants, who at the moment own the sixth and seventh picks, and the Eagles, who own the 12th, 13th and 17th picks.
Kiper’s 2021 QB class rankings: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Wilson, Mac Jones, Trey Lance.
Kiper’s top-rated quarterback for 2022 is Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh — who would have been his sixth-rated quarterback in 2021.
Given the uncertainty of who will be conducting the draft for the Giants, and given the lack of progress Daniel Jones has displayed in his third season, Kiper was asked if the Giants should consider Pickett.
“I like win-win situations,” he said. “If they loved one of these quarterbacks — and where the Giants are gonna be picking with those two picks, if you love one of ’em, that’s awfully high, that’s awfully rich for me — but if you love one of ’em, and Daniel Jones emerges as a great quarterback, we’re happy. If he doesn’t, then we got this guy that we feel can be really good. If you don’t feel like any of these quarterbacks are all that good, then you go forward with Daniel Jones and you wait it out. If you feel Pickett in two years can be Derek Carr, would you take him? If you think these quarterbacks had a ceiling to get to a certain level that you feel is better than where you feel Daniel Jones’ ceiling can be, then you take that quarterback.”
Kiper has Pickett ranked 18th on his Big Board. Desmond Ridder of Cincinnati is 19th, Matt Corral of Ole Miss is 21st and Malik Willis of Liberty is 27th. North Carolina’s Sam Howell could be a second-rounder as of now.
“They all get pushed up,” Kiper said. “I would say all these guys will probably go a little higher than I had ’em rated.”
There is some concern about Pickett’s hand size, but Kiper looks at him and sees Carr.
“He’s gonna be a 24-year-old rookie in the NFL, which Bill Parcells always wanted a certain amount of career starts, he’s gonna have 50 by the end of his [college] career,” Kiper said. “If you like Derek Carr, I think you’ll like Kenny Pickett.”
Ridder is the biggest boom-or-bust. “Ridder is a super-talented kid, throws a beautiful ball, he’s just not always as accurate or precise as you would want,” Kiper said. “Now you’d say, ‘Who was like that coming out?’ Josh Allen was. There’s gonna be some mixed opinion on him. There will be times where he makes a throw that leaves you kinda scratching your head. He can run the RPOs, he can beat you with running, he can really fly. He looks the part, great kid, mature.”
Corral is only 6-foot-1, 205 pounds.
“Toughest quarterback you’ll ever find,” Kiper said. “If you look at him from 10, 15, 20 years ago, he wouldn’t look the part. He’s not 6-3, he’s not 215, 220 pounds. But tough as nails, high pain tolerance, he can really spin it. He’s a quarterback version of [215-pound former Steelers middle linebacker] Jack Lambert.”
Willis struggled late in the year.
“He threw three interceptions against Louisiana-Monroe,” Kiper said. “But he’s got talent, somebody’s gonna roll the dice on him. He holds the ball too long, he takes some unwarranted sacks, he made some bad decisions this year. He’s got a strong arm, he’s really athletic, he’s a powerful kid, he looks like a powerhouse running back, he’s tough to get down. He’ll avoid, he’ll escape and he’ll shake off defenders and he’ll keep plays alive. You gotta kind reconcile the problems this year with maybe the personnel around him just wasn’t good enough.”
Now fast-forward to next autumn. “Put it this way: a team gets off to an 0-3, 0-4 start, they’ll be talking about Tanking For Bryce,” Kiper said. “After four, five games, fans will be saying, ‘Lose ’em all, just get Bryce Young.’ ”
Or Any Price For Bryce. “He’d be in the Trevor Lawrence category,” Kiper said. “Guaranteed No. 1 pick, generational talent. He’s gonna be talked about the same way as a Trevor Lawrence was. He’s drawing comparisons to Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers already.”
Kiper favors the Wilson comparison.
“Very instinctive, sees the field incredibly well, incredible processor of information, great accuracy, great ball placement, great pace to his throws in terms of knowing when to take something off, when to put a little on, great leadership, studies the game, tremendous mobility,” Kiper said.
Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud would be the next coveted quarterback prospect after Young in 2023.
“They really coached him up, and he had everything around him,” Kiper said. “But he’s a dual-threat quarterback.”
Kiper thinks Phil Jurkovec (Boston College) can ascend to the 2023 first-round conversation.
“He’s kinda like Kenny Pickett,” Kiper said. “Kenny Pickett had an ankle injury last year. He was limping the whole time he was out there. He was smart to go back. Phil Jurkovec had a wrist-hand injury surgery, came back late in the year, didn’t play well, so he’s going back to Boston College. He has the ability and the natural talent to be a guy we’re talking about.”
Jets fans find themselves wondering whether general manager Joe Douglas should have drafted Mac Jones instead.
“I would say definitely no,” Kiper said. “Just because Mac Jones is in a perfect situation. [If] Mac Jones was with the Jets, oh boy! It would have been awful for him.”
Wilson’s early struggles following BYU shouldn’t have surprised anyone.
“He played cupcake after cupcake, I said his sugar levels were at all-time high,” Kiper said. “The NFL’s trying to beat you up physically and the fans and the media are trying to beat you up mentally. So if you can overcome the physical beating that you get just by being with a bad team and you can overcome the mental beating that you get from the fans and the media and everybody saying, ‘You should have drafted this guy, this guy’s a bust.’ If you can deal with all of that noise and just don’t even listen to it, what has Zach Wilson shown that we didn’t expect? The easiest prediction in the world was saying that Zach Wilson’s gonna run into some tough moments once the bell rang and the regular-season began.”
If Mac Jones is a poor man’s Tom Brady, that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
“He’s one of the smartest kids you’ll ever find,” Kiper said. “He sees something, he retains it. If you say, ‘What’s his mental capability on a scale of 1-10?’ He’s a 20. He is incredibly, incredibly off-the-charts intelligent. Not many of his throws are not on the mark. The intellect is what separates Mac Jones. Brady is that 20 competitor. Mac is a 20 intellect.”
Kiper is certain the Bears got the right quarterback in Fields.
“Internally, they think they know this guy’s gonna be really, really good, and if not great,” he said.
The 49ers are grooming Lance to take over from Jimmy Garoppolo.
“The thing he’s gotta work on is his accuracy. He’s a thrower not a pitcher right now,” Kiper said.
There is always risk-reward when you are drafting quarterbacks. Ask the Jets (Sam Darnold). Ask the Cardinals (Josh Rosen). Ask anyone. Especially in the 2022 NFL Draft.
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