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Golf has a lot of available data, but it’s not all predictive of future success, mostly because some of it doesn’t explain what’s actually happening on the golf course that well.
For example: Two golfers could hit an equal number of greens in regulation in a single round … let’s say 60 percent.
There are obviously a ton of details missing, including:
- Were they hitting it from the same distance?
- Was it in the fairway or rough?
- Where on the green did the ball land?
There’s a big difference between sticking approach shots within 5 feet vs. hitting the green but having a 60-foot putt every time.
That’s where Strokes Gained comes in.
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly playing by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Columbia University professor Mark Broadie invented the “Strokes Gained” concept utilizing ShotLink data, which is a proprietary software that uses lasers and cameras to capture a ton of information on every shot hit by a golfer.
Using the millions of data points it has, the Tour calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Here’s a good example, per the PGA Tour. On average, it takes Tour players the following number of shots to get the ball in the hole from the fairway:
- 2.0 shots to hole out: 7 yards
- 2.5 shots to hole out: 30 yards
- 3.0 shots to hole out: 168 yards
If the player finds the cup in two shots from 30 yards out, he’s gained 0.5 strokes. If it takes three shots, he’s lost 0.5 strokes. The Tour’s data can do the same thing for every distance and situation.
Another great example: It takes players on average the same number of shots to finish the hole from 70 yards in the rough (2.92) is it does from 150 yards in the fairway (2.92).
Every situation in golf is different — Strokes Gained measures how players handle them relative to the situation.
What Strokes Gained data has revealed is that the old golf adage “Drive for show, putt for dough” is wrong. The best players hit the ball the furthest off the tee and stick their approach shots close.
Those two factors tend to be more predictive week-to-week than putting, which can be very random and hard to predict. So in general, you want to bet on the best ball strikers and hope their putters get hot, not the best putters in hopes that their irons come around.
Stats for the main Strokes Gained categories — Off-the Tee, Approach, Around-the-Green, Putting, Tee-to-Green — are posted at pgatour.com.
Tee-to-Green is perhaps the best metric of them all. It’s essentially Total Strokes Gained — which is the sum of off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green and putting — minus putting. As mentioned above, putting can be quite random day-to-day and week-to-week. A golfer who is constantly giving himself 5-foot birdie putts might have a worse score than one who is draining 15-footers, but you’ll want to bet on the former long term. Things will even out.
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